South Sudan civilians settle down at UN house in Juba, South Sudan, July 12, 2016. Tense calm returned to South Sudan's capital after the two leaders called onceasefire and ordered all commanders to lay down arms and report to their unit bases. (Xinhua)
JUBA, July 14 (Xinhua) -- Fresh fighting has dealt a major blow to South Sudan's efforts to recover from months of civil unrest, leading to fresh population displacements and the escalation of a humanitarian crisis in the world's newest state, analysts have said.
"This fighting has taken South Sudan back to half a year or maybe more than three months of the Transitional Government of National Unity," James Alic Garang, Associate Professor at the University of Upper Nile in Juba told Xinhua.
Garang, an economic analyst, said the fighting in Juba since July 7, has left the country with an uncertain political and economic future following the destruction of key facilities and installations in the capital.
"The future of investment will be affected because real investors will not have second thought on whether to rush to South Sudan to invest. They will wait and see the political situation stabilized," he added.
The latest flare-up of fighting between the forces loyal to President Salva Kiir and First Vice President Riek Machar, which left scores of people dead, has raised questions about the political stability.
The South Sudanese leaders signed an agreement in August 2015 to form a unity government. The unity government was formed in April to run the country until elections are held within 36 months.
However, the latest fighting, three months into the unity government, has led analysts to believe that the slow implementation of the August peace agreement was leading to tensions.
"More generally, this conflict could be attributed to the lack of implementation of the peace agreement which perhaps led to the violence on Thursday, Friday and the days that followed," Garang said.
The analyst said the fighting has also constrained the government's ability to provide basic services to the citizens who have been severely affected by the past violence in Juba and other provincial towns.
"The ability of the government to provide basic services to the citizens has already been destabilized and shaken," Garang warned.
The conflict severely affected the ability of the international humanitarian agencies to reach people caught up in the crossfire.
Dr. Augustino Ting Mayai, senior political analyst at SUDD Institute, a local government policy think-tank, said the fighting has displaced several people, adding to the existing humanitarian challenges and affected the distribution of food and basic needs in and around the capital.
"There are great and gradual consequences of this violence and so the question is how to deal with it," Mayai said.
The analyst said the South Sudanese leaders have taken the initial steps to declare a ceasefire, which has held in the interim period. The ceasefire has allowed several residents of Juba to venture out in search of basic commodities and food.
However, the consequences of the latest fighting are expected to be felt widely in the coming months.
"The two leaders should be appreciated for going through the need to hand their forces not to fight each other. The second aspect is that there is need for humanitarian interventions," Mayai said.
Mayai said civilians have been newly displaced and the general population is living without food and water. He said the international community and the government should develop a plan to deal with the humanitarian situation.
South Sudanese are witnessing shops run out of essential supplies days immediately after the fierce fighting.
Garang said he visited shops around a place called Jebel-Dinka, where the shelves remained empty because the city residents took leave of the ceasefire to stock up essential supplies.
"I have seen families moving toward Gurei and Gudele in Juba, to look for food. This is one clear impact of the conflict already. There is already displacement of families to places like Lemon-Guba and Jebel-Luri among other areas," Garang told Xinhua in an interview.
The fighting has left Juba uncertain following the destruction of fuel stations in the capital, which is likely to impact the town's transport system, according to Garang.
"There is a lot of uncertainty. The transport is going to disband because some fuel stations have already been destroyed," Garang said.
According to him, transport along the main highway from Uganda to South Sudan has been affected by the fighting, leading to the disruption of the essential food supplies.
The conflict is also a true test to the effectiveness of the unity government formed after the 2013 political crisis between President Kiir and his First Vice President.
Analysts say the declaration of the Monday ceasefire has partly shown the effectiveness of the unity government to restore stability but the reforms are still required to restore political stability.
