SYDNEY, March 4 (Xinhua) -- Humpback whale populations on the east coast of Australia have seen such a resurgence that researchers now believe their numbers will peak within the next decade.
A study released on Monday by the University of Queensland (UoQ) showed that since 1962 when commercial whaling ceased, humpback numbers have grown from just a few hundred to around 25,000.
"Our observations indicate the east Australian humpback whales are doing well, averaging a 10.9 percent increase per annum," Associate Professor Michael Noad from UoQ's School of Veterinary Science said.
"With this growth continuing rapidly, our modelling suggests that either these whales are heading for a higher than expected abundance -- at least 40,000 whales -- or, more worryingly, there may be a population surge, with a peak in whale abundance followed by a crash."
In the wild, food competition, scarcity of mates, disease or other environmental factors limit the size to which groups can grow, meaning rather than continue to increase they plateau at numbers which the environment can sustain.
What Noad and his team intend to monitor is exactly how and why this plateauing will occur for the whales, which have bounced back from near extinction very rapidly.
"If there's a downturn in the population in the near future, we need to be able to detect and understand its cause." Noad said.
"Any population crash will have serious management implications as well as consequences for the east coast whale watching industry which is worth more than (70 million U.S. dollars) to the economy."
