by Alessandra Cardone
ROME, May 27 (Xinhua) -- The European Union (EU) was unlikely to introduce drastic changes in its major policies and global stance after the vote to renew the European parliament, despite the wide gains registered by Eurosceptic forces, according to Italian experts.
In the election round held across the 28 member states of the bloc on May 23-26, populist and nationalist parties bond by a strong criticism towards the EU saw their support increase relevantly in several member states.
That included major member states such as Italy -- where rightwing League currently leading the coalition government performed as the largest party with over 33 percent -- and France, where far-right Marie Le Pen's party emerged as the most voted force with 23.3 percent ahead of president Macron's centrist one at 22.4 percent.
Analysts said the overall outcome of the elections was quite expected, and would indeed bring about a partial shift in the balance of power and influence the political debate within the EU.
Yet, pro-European forces -- both mainstream and new groups -- kept most seats in the assembly, fending off the risk of a major disruption in the process of European integration.
For the first time since MEPs were firstly elected in 1979, indeed, the center-right European People's Party and the center-left Socialists-Democrats together do not have enough seats to hold the majority, and one likely scenario to do so was for them to enlarge the alliance to centrist Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe (ALDE).
Consequently, more compromise would be needed to reach consensus or negotiate an agreement on certain issues.
"As nationalists and populists gain space in the European parliament, for example, the average EU's approach to free trade might slightly change, because these forces are usually more prone to protectionism," Alessia Amighini, co-head of Asia Center and senior associate research fellow at ISPI think tank, told Xinhua.
"Yet, I do not see any real risk the EU will shift its current position in favor of global trade, because the relative weight of each member state is different within the EU."
"In the economic field especially, a country like Germany (historically strongly in favor of free trade) plays a crucial influence in shaping the EU's position," she explained.
Antonio Villafranca, lecturer in International Relations and European Economic Policies at Bocconi University in Milan and ISPI's co-head of Europe and Global Governance Centre, agreed on the issue.
"When new trade agreements will come in sight for the EU, it is very likely the debate within the bloc will be tougher, and more attention might be called on the specific impact of the proposed deals on the various EU member states," he told Xinhua.
"Nevertheless, I do not expect a drastic change in the EU's position, not that it will flatten itself on the protectionism currently expressed by the United States."
However, Villafranca noted the new EU parliament will be more fragmented, due to the gains of nationalist and populist parties across Europe, and this might impact, although not impede, the EU's overall ability to proceed on certain open issues and forthcoming deadlines.
"The first of these open issues, for example, is the next long-term EU budget 2021-2027, which could prove a real test for the populist forces and their cohesion in the EU parliament," the analyst said.
The reason, Villafranca explained, was that populist parties from eastern EU countries and those from westerns and southern ones had conflicting interests.
"If we consider the long-term budget proposals submitted by the outgoing EU Commission, eastern EU countries might see a drop in funds allocated by Brussels, while those from western and southern Europe were more likely to gain resources," he said.
"The EU has also to deal with the crucial issue of the euro-zone reform, and, again, a wide gap already exists between northern and southern EU members," Villafranca went further.
"The most obvious result to expect on this issue is a stalemate."
Both analysts also forecast an overall continuity in the relationship between the EU and other major global actors.
"I do not expect major shifts in Sino-European ties, for example, because the dialogue has already been boosted, although sometimes with a stronger dialectic between the two actors," Amighini said.
"China has focused much on Europe, while the EU has better outlined its own positions lately, which usually helps define the role of the interlocutor in the eye of China more clearly."
Amighini explained that, despite points of friction between the two major actors that might be currently more visible in the public debate than those of consensus, "a real dialogue on specific and concrete issues is underway, and this is positive, and not likely to be influenced by the results of the EU vote."
On his part, Villafranca said the EU's role on the global stage might become harder to preserve in this perspective.
"However, the increase of internal divisions might result in an overall weakening of the EU's strength as global actor."
