ANKARA, Jan. 14 (Xinhua) -- The cease-fire which came into force in Syria's Idlib province may not be enough to ease Turkey's concerns on a new influx of displaced people to its border areas, said experts.
A cease-fire brokered by Russia and Turkey came into effect at midnight on Sunday in Idlib, which is at the verge of a humanitarian catastrophe, in order to stem the flow of civilians uprooted by the violence.
More than 300,000 people have fled the conflict in Idlib toward the Turkish border in recent weeks, as some towns and villages were pounded by Russian jets and Syrian artillery since a renewed government assault in last month.
"I don't think that this new cease-fire in Idlib will have a positive impact on the situation of hundreds of thousands of displaced people who are already living in very dire conditions," Esra Uludag, a specialist on migration, told Xinhua.
Uludag, also a coordinator at the Ankara-based think tank Bosphorus Migration Studies, pointed out that during artillery shelling and air raids, hospitals and other humanitarian facilities have been damaged in the region, putting civilian lives at continuous risk.
"For these reasons, and because of winter conditions, Turkey's concerns of a new wave of refugees, seem still valid despite a cease-fire," she said.
Some 3.6 million Syrians have sought shelter in Turkey from their country's nearly nine-year civil war. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey cannot carry the burden of more refugees from Idlib, where up to 3 million people live.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, backed by Russia and Iran, has vowed to recapture Idlib, the last rebel-held swathe of territory, where many Syrians are completely dependent on cross-border aid. Turkey has for years backed Syrian rebels fighting against Assad.
The cease-fire came after Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Syrian capital Damascus last week, where he met Assad.
Turkey has built a wall on most of its borders with southern neighbor Syria to prevent the arrival of new refugees, but the heartbreaking plight of women and children made headlines in Turkey too, putting pressure on Erdogan who warned that European nations will suffer the negative consequences if no actions are taken.
"In the event of new arrival of refugees from Idlib, Turkey can once again, like it did in the past, open its borders for humanitarian purposes," argued Uludag.
In 2016, after a massive wave of refugees flocked to European Union countries, the bloc pledged 6 billion euros (about 6.68 U.S. dollars) to Turkey in exchange for Ankara to close its border to prevent migrants from fleeing to Europe.
German Chancellor Angela Merkel, the key sponsor of the controversial migration deal, is expected to host an international conference on Libya in Berlin on Jan. 19, with Erdogan's participation.
The Turkish leader is very likely to ask for more funds and support from the European bloc to cover the costs of hosting millions of refugees.
A 2019 survey conducted by the Ankara-based think tank Tepav said the most important issue on the EU-Turkey agenda is the refugee crisis, well ahead of bilateral relations.
Frustrated with the lack of sustainable international support, Erdogan has made the refugee issue a primary leverage in Turkey's rocky ties with the EU since the freeze of the accessions talks, threatening to send "busloads" of migrants to Greece or Bulgaria.
"Turkey cannot handle a new refugee wave from Syria, our country will not carry this migration burden alone," Erdogan warned.
"President Erdogan made this kind of remarks several times in the past. We are fully aware of the difficulties that Turkey has to endure to host such a huge number of migrants and we are supporting the efforts," a European diplomat told Xinhua on condition of anonymity.
The diplomat pointed out that the refugee pact is in the interests of both Turkey and the EU and has served its purpose since it started to be effective.
According to the Turkish Ministry of Defense, around 580,000 have been repatriated in 2019 in the areas where Turkish army has launched cross-border operations in the last three years amid growing anti-immigrant sentiment in Turkey, recovering slowly from a painful economic recession.
Erdogan aims to send even more Syrians to a controversial "safe zone" in northeastern Syria to ease the pressure building up domestically on its government.
A study conducted last year by Istanbul Bilgi University's Migration Center revealed that more than 85 percent of the respondents favored the repatriation of refugees.
